Compass MLS Offensive Tracker
Compass's 15 single-MLS antitrust suits, the nine-plaintiff New York actions and the NWMLS baseline, with what MindCast expects next.
Compass filed one complaint 15 times. The template drops the §2 monopolization theory from the 2025 NWMLS suit for a per se boycott count that travels. The fight now turns on forum, not market definition.
Court filings, enforcement actions and legislation on Compass and the MLSs sit in dockets, agency letters and state bill systems that no single source aggregates. The tracker holds them in one matrix with a MindCast Simulation Prediction and band on each live question.
Four tracks: the 15 home-district suits and two New York actions; state attorney general actions, led by the New York antitrust inquiry open since June 2026; federal and congressional inquiries, including the House Judiciary briefing of the Compass and MRED chief executives and Senate letters on the Anywhere merger; and state listing-transparency legislation, with Washington SSB 6091 enacted and New York and Connecticut bills advanced in 2026. Every entry carries its public source.
Nov 12, 2026 · Compass files
15 suits, 8 states, one template
Compass sues each MLS in its home federal district, the mirror image of the defendants' choice of New York.
- Only the Houston complaint is public: S.D. Tex. 4:26-cv-09930, two Sherman §1 counts, Eimer Stahl.
- RISMedia reports the Hive, San Diego and REcolorado complaints follow the same structure.
Watch: the other 14 case numbers; first-to-file and transfer motions in New York within weeks (70–85%).
Oct 21 and 30, 2026 · Defendants organize
ARMLS et al. v. Compass reaches seven plaintiffs
Seven MLSs seek a declaration in S.D.N.Y. (1:26-cv-09253) that their cooperation rules are lawful.
- ARMLS, bridgeMLS, Canopy, REcolorado, Hive, Doorify; MLSListings joined Oct 30.
- All seven are now plaintiffs in New York and defendants at home.
Watch: whether the home-district suits count as compulsory counterclaims.
Oct 5, 16 and 27, 2026 · The template is born
CRMLS sues first; Compass answers with the source complaint
CRMLS filed in New York one day before Compass's deadline. Compass's reply became the template for all fifteen.
- CRMLS v. Compass, S.D.N.Y. 1:26-cv-08796; OneKey joined Oct 27.
- Compass v. CRMLS, C.D. Cal. 5:26-cv-06121, six counts, 49 pages.
Watch: the forum ruling on the CRMLS claims, expected in the first half of 2027.
Sept 2026 · Washington closes
Compass and NWMLS resolve the 2025 case with First Look status
Mandatory submission survived. Compass gained a named pre-marketing status, not a ruling against the rules.
- Compass v. NWMLS, W.D. Wash. 2:25-cv-00766, six counts including §2 monopolization, Cooley.
Status: baseline row in the matrix.
Live window · Nov 12 to Dec 12, 2026
Who joins or files next
Seven defendants sit outside both New York actions: Houston, Bay East, Contra Costa, The MLS-CLAW, San Diego, NorthstarMLS and Stellar.
MindCast expects at least one to join or file by December 12 63–81%. New York plaintiff count: 9 against a threshold of 11 by May 3, 2027.
Allegations in every complaint remain unproven. Each row of the full matrix carries its source.
Complaint Template Comparison
The 2025 NWMLS complaint, the October 2026 CRMLS complaint that became the template, and the November 2026 Houston complaint that proves the template travels.
| Element | NWMLS (Apr 2025, baseline) | CRMLS (Oct 2026, template source) | Houston HRIS (Nov 2026, confirmed match) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Court and case | W.D. Wash. 2:25-cv-00766 | C.D. Cal. 5:26-cv-06121 | S.D. Tex. 4:26-cv-09930 |
| Counts pleaded | 6: Sherman §1; Sherman §2; Washington restraint of trade; Washington monopolization; two tortious-interference counts | 6: Sherman §1 per se boycott; Sherman §1 rule of reason; Cartwright Act; Unfair Competition Law; two interference counts | 2: Sherman §1 per se group boycott; Sherman §1 rule of reason with quick look |
| Monopolization theory | Yes, Seattle/King County market | No | No |
| State-law claims | Yes | Yes | No |
| Board theory | Windermere holds 6 of 15 seats | Competing brokers govern the rules | A board majority of working brokers who compete with Compass |
| Compass counsel | Cooley (Durbin; Glass) | Eimer Stahl (Eimer; Tartakovsky); Burhenn & Gest | Eimer Stahl (Eimer, attorney-in-charge) |
| Rules and fines | Rules 2, 4, 6; no fine amounts; data-feed cutoff Apr 15, 2025 | Rules 7.8, 7.9; fines to $2,500, suspension, expulsion | Rules 1, 1.01, 1.3, 1.26, 2.01, 7, 9; $1,000 / $2,500 / $5,000; to $15,000 discretionary; three-year bar |
| Program framing | Compass Private Exclusives: private pre-marketing | See It First: public marketing off the MLS | See It First: public marketing off the MLS |
| Statistics cited | 2.9% premium; offers 8 days sooner; 30% fewer price drops; 48.2% adoption | 4.6% premium; 34% fewer days on market; 29% fewer price cuts; ~48% adoption; 93% reach the MLS | Same as CRMLS |
| $175M damages claim | No | Yes | Yes |
| Data-licensing allegation | No | Yes | Yes, citing the Repliers deal |
| Continuing violations | No | No | Yes |
| Cites earlier Compass cases | n/a | No | No: Realcomp II, Realty Multi-List, Zillow v. MRED |
| Length | 39 pages | 49 pages | 43 pages |
Drafting strategy
Pleading for volume
A §2 claim needs market power proved in every district. A per se boycott count runs anywhere with local edits.
Confidence: 75–85%. Test: the 14 unseen complaints share Houston's count structure.
Narrative repair
Removing the private-exclusive weak spot
"Private exclusive" invited the charge that Compass hides listings. "Public marketing off the MLS" removes the defendants' strongest consumer-harm answer.
Confidence: 65–75%. Test: defendants attack the §1 count on cooperation economics, not consumer access.
Damages architecture
Linking MLS rules to commission settlements
The $175M claim ties cooperation rules to Compass's commission-suit payouts. The causal chain is the template's most exposed joint, repeated in every district.
Confidence: 60–70%. Test: Rule 12 briefing in Houston leads with causation and standing.
Forum geometry
Home districts against one New York court
Eight of fifteen defendants hold both roles, so first-to-file and compulsory-counterclaim rulings decide where the merits are heard.
Confidence: 70–85% that transfer or first-to-file motions land within weeks. Forum-ruling weights: Retain 60% · Sever and transfer 22% · Dismiss 18%.
What stayed the same
The campaign sequence survived the rewrite
Demand letter, deadline, suit: the NWMLS sequence repeats. Compass rewrote the pleading and kept the playbook.
Confidence: 85–90%. Test: each unseen complaint recites a 2026 demand letter and a lapsed deadline.
Drawn from the three public complaints. "Reported similar" rests on RISMedia's review of complaints it saw but did not post.
Lawsuit Matrix Highlights
Seventeen cases, twenty columns: court, counsel, counts, rules, fines, statistics, damages theory and public status.
| Defendant | Home court | Template status | Suing Compass in New York | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston (HRIS) | S.D. Tex. 4:26-cv-09930 | Confirmed match | No | Only public complaint; candidate to join or file |
| CRMLS | C.D. Cal. 5:26-cv-06121 | Template source | Yes · 1:26-cv-08796 | Sued first, Oct 5 |
| OneKey MLS | Pending (NY) | Pending | Yes · joined Oct 27 | Amended complaint cites Reffkin–Haggerty emails |
| ARMLS | Pending (AZ) | Pending | Yes · lead plaintiff | 1:26-cv-09253 |
| bridgeMLS | Pending (CA) | Pending | Yes | Oakland |
| MLSListings | Pending (CA) | Pending | Yes · added Oct 30 | San Jose |
| Canopy MLS | Pending (NC) | Pending | Yes | Charlotte |
| Hive MLS | Pending (NC) | Reported similar | Yes | 45 pages; governance pleaded as a conspiracy of competing brokers |
| Doorify MLS | E.D.N.C. | Pending | Yes | |
| REcolorado | Pending (CO) | Reported similar | Yes | Cites antitrust concerns from the 2024 sale |
| San Diego MLS | Pending (CA) | Reported similar | No | Candidate to join or file |
| Bay East MLS | Pending (CA) | Pending | No | Candidate to join or file |
| Contra Costa MLS | Pending (CA) | Pending | No | Candidate to join or file |
| The MLS-CLAW | Pending (CA) | Pending | No | Candidate to join or file |
| NorthstarMLS | Pending (MN) | Pending | No | Candidate to join or file |
| Stellar MLS | Pending (FL) | Pending | No | Candidate to join or file |
| NWMLS | W.D. Wash. 2:25-cv-00766 | Baseline | No | 2025 case, resolved Sept 2026 |
Enforcement and Legislation Tracks
Three tracks run beside the private suits and move on different clocks: state attorneys general, federal and congressional inquiries, and state listing-transparency statutes. Each row names the actor, the action, the date and the public source.
| Track | Actor | Action | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State AG | New York Attorney General, Antitrust Bureau | Inquiry into Compass market position after the Anywhere acquisition; New York brokerages contacted for information; office confirms an active inquiry | June 2026 | Active | The Real Deal · RISMedia |
| State AG | 19 consumer groups to state attorneys general | Letter requesting consumer-protection investigations of private-listing practices, state merger review of Compass–Anywhere and a multistate working group | Sept 16, 2026 | Pending | RISMedia |
| Federal | 18 members of Congress to the Attorney General | Letter questioning the Department of Justice review of the Compass–Anywhere merger | Feb 19, 2026 | Pending | Inman |
| Federal | Consumer Federation of America and allies to FTC and DOJ | Petition to investigate Compass data and access agreements with MLSs, including the MRED private listing network expansion | July 2026 | Pending | HousingWire |
| Federal | House Judiciary subcommittee | Compass and MRED chief executives called to brief the subcommittee on their private listings partnership | July 2026 | Pending | Real Estate News |
| Federal | Senator Warren | Inquiry letter to Compass and MRED seeking antitrust analyses and listing volumes by channel | Aug 6, 2026 | Pending | Inman |
| Legislation | Washington | SSB 6091: public marketing required for listings; private pre-marketing restricted | Enacted 2026 | Enacted | The Real Deal |
| Legislation | Connecticut | Public marketing law with concurrent-marketing requirement; signed May 27, 2026; effective Oct 1, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | Enacted | HousingWire |
| Legislation | New York | S10274 / A9518, Fair and Transparent Real Estate Listings Act: public marketing by default with seller opt-out disclosure; fines to $5,000; passed both chambers June 1, 2026; lead sponsor expects the governor's signature within weeks | Passed June 1, 2026 | Awaiting governor | The Real Deal (Nov 11) |
| Legislation | Wisconsin | First state private-listing rule, opt-out model | Dec 2025 | Enacted | The Real Deal |
| Legislation | Illinois · Hawaii | Public-marketing bills introduced | 2026 sessions | Pending | The Real Deal |
Enforcement and Legislation Foresight Simulation Predictions
ET marks the enforcement and legislation prediction set added November 13, 2026. Each band is MindCast's probability range. Four predictions.
| ID | MindCast Foresight Simulation Prediction | Band | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET-1 | New York enacts the Fair and Transparent Real Estate Listings Act by December 31, 2026 | 78–88% | Signature or enactment without signature both count. Fails on a veto or on the bill sitting unsigned past the deadline. |
| ET-2 | A second state attorney general opens a public inquiry into Compass private-listing or MLS practices by May 3, 2027 | 35–50% | Resolves on a confirmed inquiry, civil investigative demand or complaint from any state other than New York. |
| ET-3 | The Department of Justice or the Federal Trade Commission opens a formal public investigation of Compass–MLS agreements by May 3, 2027 | 25–40% | Letters and briefings do not count. Resolves on an announced investigation, a civil investigative demand made public or a filed action. |
| ET-4 | At least one of Texas, North Carolina, Colorado, Minnesota or Florida sees a public-marketing listing bill introduced in its 2027 session | 55–70% | The five template-suit states without a transparency law. Resolves on bill introduction in either chamber. |
Sources: public filings, agency and congressional letters as reported by The Real Deal, RISMedia, Inman, HousingWire and Real Estate News. Updated November 13, 2026.
War Gaming: Live Board
Play the MLS board, the independent brokerage or a 2027 legislative committee against an adapting Compass Cognitive Digital Twin. Every band, weight and state comes from the published Foresight Simulation.
CE-C4 · Conditional · active
Next MLS to join or file 63–81%
After a new Compass suit, at least one MLS not yet a plaintiff joins or files within 30 days.
Window: Nov 12 to Dec 12, 2026. Candidates: the seven defendants outside both New York actions.
CE-P2 · Primary · reopened
Eleven New York plaintiffs 47–61%
At least 11 MLSs are plaintiffs across the two New York actions by May 3, 2027.
Count today: 9. The fifteen suits make joinder the live option for every defendant.
CE-P1 · Primary
CRMLS claims stay in New York 66–78%
Neither dismissed nor transferred by May 3, 2027.
Forum-ruling weights: Retain 60% · Sever and transfer 22% · Dismiss 18%.
Lex S-3 · Carried · resolved true
Compass sues an MLS beyond CRMLS 69–84%
Compass files an antitrust complaint against at least one MLS other than CRMLS by December 31, 2026.
Outcome: true on November 12, 2026, with fifteen complaints.
CE-S3 · Secondary
Compass keeps paying CRMLS fines 72–86%
Through May 3, 2027. Paying preserves inventory access while the rule is litigated; stopping hands CRMLS an expulsion event.
Outcome weights · February 3, 2028
Where the national market lands
Relevant MindCast Works
Behavioral Economics + Dynamic Predictive Game Theory analysis behind the tracker: the NWMLS baseline, CRMLS and California, legislation, campaign economics and method.
Economics Vision · Nov 4, 2026
War Gaming
Matrix
Value Proposition
Economics Vision
Economics Vision
Amicus Brief
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Lex Vision
Economics Vision
Economics Vision
Method
Method
MindCast AI LLC · [email protected] · Bellevue, Washington · Updated November 12, 2026. Case facts come from public complaints and from Inman, RISMedia, Law360 and Bloomberg reporting.